You Never Know

Confession time. I did not expect the outcome of Saturday's, and ultimately 2008's, Tribal Council election results. As every year, I reflected on what the possibilities might be, which for me realistically boiled down to any combination from a pool of six people who had legitimate shots at being elected, with only one being seen as a sure thing. The one combination I admittedly did not consider, at least not to my best memory, was that the three incumbents would be re-elected. Why didn't I think that? Because as far back as I can remember, and if anybody reading can help shed light, not at any time in recent history has an election year passed without seeing some change in seats. Which makes what just happened all the more hard to explain. But I will try anyway.
Looking back on the last two elections, it has been pretty clear that the Wisdom, Integrity, Family party, though they might deny they are a party, has been pretty darn successful. In 2006, their ticket of Cheryle Kennedy, Jack Giffen, and Val Sheker each garnered record votes. Last year, two of their other candidates, Steve Bobb and June Sell-Sherer, also won seats well ahead of most others. I was the sole survivor of those two elections. In many ways, all that they have really done is what we did, by "we" I mean those of the ABC/PPP camp who also in a two year span won five seats on the Council, in 2004 each of us getting what at the time was the most votes ever. In other words, over a four year span, the two perceived parties exhanged blows, with the WIF's getting the last laugh as they are still in control.
But 2008 looks a bit different. For one, those who consider our Tribal Vice-Chair to be the real leader of the WIF party, and to many the single most influential person in Grand Ronde, might be surprised to survey the Council and know that statistically, at 468 votes, of all nine Council members he was elected with the second least amount of votes. The 468 would not have been sufficient either of the last two elections to be elected. Secondly, that number is a very significant drop from 2005, when he was way ahead of the pack with 591 votes, at the time the third highest total ever. The dip in votes is not easily explained. One could point to the Leno letter, but I think that there is more to it than that. The other two members of this year's incarnation of the WIF ticket, Bob Haller and Patsy Pullin, also got a lot fewer votes than I expected, and certainly a lot less than the other five candidates who ran under the party's banner did the last two years. It would be hard to reason that they were affected by the Leno letter.
My own best guess is that members, most importantly members who vote, are approaching the elections with a greater degree of scrutiny these days. They want to know as much as possible about who they vote for. When I look at the top vote-getters the last two years, if my memory is correct, there is a direct correlation between to how many campaign letters a candidate mails out, activity on the internet, and just overall personal appeal, with the two former mattering a lot more than the latter. The 600 word "Smoke Signals" statement is just not enough. Signs are not enough. A simple campaign letter stapled to a sheet of sloppy endorsement signatures is just not enough. Looking at this years' top four vote-getters, Kathleen Tom, Reyn Leno, Wink Soderberg, and Andy Jenness, three of those people had websites. Information, what have you done for me lately--Voters want to know who they are voting for, and what they are getting with those votes.
For all I know this year was an aberration, a freak occurence if you will. But I don't think so. People expect reform when they vote in a change in leadership. I know that all too well. They have not seen that the last two years, despite the new faces. But then again, have they really seen new faces, or simply familiar faces repackaged under a new logo and slogan, and better organized than before? I don't know the answer. But I think the next two years we will find out.
What I learned with the 2008 Tribal Council elections is that despite experience, despite historical patterns, and despite organization, you never really know what's going to happen. The one thing you can master is not looking surprised.